Jim Spensley published SMAAC Statement on the MAC's 2021 Budget in News Blog 2020-12-19 11:10:23 -0600
21 Dec 2020, 1 PM
Chair King, Commissioners: Planning and budgeting for next year has been a daunting task.
Staff: We understand how difficult the 2020 circumstances made day-to-day airports management. We noted that no questions, testimony, or complaints were received for the AOEE. We understand you need to start 2021 and deal with reality whatever happens. Good luck!
For many years, flights at MSP International were more expensive and less convenient for economically important local (O&D) passengers and more obtrusive and harmful overflying businesses, neighborhoods, homes, and schools than the previous year. In 2020, operations per day dropped to one-third or less of the 2019 average despite Federal interventions.
Toward the end of 2019, SMAAC met with Director Ryks and VP Rief about options for balanced flight arrivals and departures under the conditions imposed by the new FAA air traffic control procedures for R 17-35. On January 5th, 2020 we and several Legislators took our concerns to Governor Walz. By then, the Governor’s Executive Order on reducing GHG was widely appreciated, but the Commission doubted its authority off of Commission property on environmental protection measures. These issues may seem less relevant, but they remain crucial in a economic recovery, particularly a fast “V-shaped” one.
The 2021 budget plan seems to be counting on airline revenue forecasts with no certainty or commitment. And on false assumptions about facility and operations costs modeled on 2019 use: The same passengers and trips, fewer for the next 9 to 24 months but catching up; the same airlines, fewer flights each day but the same number possible at peak-hours; the same airport services with higher average costs, including employee wages.
Respectfully, it looks like a hub airport cookie-cutter aviation industry budget, planned for the year after 2019, not the year after the pandemic has been harnessed.
Is there a guess about when daily operations, Delta-scheduled connections, may push hourly operations into the converging runway operations (CRO) safety corner?
Will the next public health risk be global warming or global warming?
Did the change to virtual meetings and home offices make business travel less desirable –also considering high fares and if flight automation (remote air traffic control, B-737 MAX) reinforces fear of flying, and uncomfortable seats crowded in economy cabins reinforce fear of illness?
Are the District Commissioners informed of residents' and businesses' air travel needs in their district? Did you plan surveys or studies to find out? [SMAAC would help with that.]
Every recession has its own cause and effect, and every recovery has its own surprises. Did you get infallible expert advice from Staff? If not, what was learned from past mistakes?
Jim Spensley published CARES Grant $ for COVID-19 Study in Health Risks From Overflight Emissions 2020-12-13 15:45:34 -0600
"Senior leadership of the MAC" as the MAC media spokesman, Pat Hogan, calls them, reversed course or never intended to discuss operational details or environmental impacts matters with SMAAC --or with other organized noise and pollution from overflights protestors.
That is the State government's and the general public's loss because truly important observations, facts, Reports and ideas are often overlooked or rejected for not coinciding with the airline-aviation industry's wants or demands. Anyway, MAC and Met Council appointments were not the first to be considered by Governor Walz, who knew of SMAAC from the House Transportation Committee and that we had rated 5CD candidates in the 2018 election.
As our concern this year is how well and how fairly will MSP restore air service in the "economic recovery." Chair King met with me just after he was elevated to MAC Chair in the context that most existing plans for MSP after the CRO/max hourly rate safety order was digested were upset by the virus. "Everyone" was concerned about pubic health workers, essential services jobs and if the economic costs expected could be controlled.MSP applied for a CRAES Act Grant and $125 million was alloted in April.
I said that there were winner and loser airports and airlines after 9/11 and after the recession and that the recent CRO Safety Order made a "V-shaped" recovery of air services passenger counts at both MSP and across the Nation was not likely based on history. And I said, public health and safety and environmental protection (continued global warming) from overflights and MSP operations is a high unknown cost and who avoids or pays for that cost is an unanswered but extremely important question affecting Metro economic recovery and future growth.
SMAAC's suggestion to "quantify the TC Metro part of the high unknown cost" (using a small part of the 2020 CARES Act grant) seemed well received in September: Thank you emails from Chair King and OFA Chair Monaco. Director Ryks asking CFO Saeed to contact SMAAC, and mention in two news articles the next day.
As a courtesy, I copied Hogan and King on a message answering one reporters question and they messaged back; King said the CFO was too busy to keep his commitment to call us back; Hogan said I had "given incorrect information" to the reporter "as usual" including a well-established mention that new (2010-2011) routes --turning North departing MSP Runway 30R --passing over South Minneapolis now for 8 years or more and exposing residents and workers to new noise and pollution (almost exactly the conditions warned about as health risks by the 2010 WHO Warning). Hogan, I think, was misinformed by a MAC employee who may have misunderstood the question as about current operations so intent to defame was arguably missing; the "as usual" part, not so much.
Jim Spensley commented on MAC: Use the CARES Grant for Overflight Risk studies 2020-12-02 11:36:20 -0600I was pretty unhappy with a change made at the MAC after I asked the Operations Finance and Admin Committee for more information about this topic. At the September meeting, there was a mix-up handling SMAAC’s request to comment on a specific item (a Memo and Presentation about the CARES Grant to the MAC last April was missing in the agenda package). as of the Thursday before the Monday Committee video Meeting).
Director Ryks apologized that the request didn’t reach the Committee and a link to the Memo provided that worked. I stayed for an hour+ to see the presentation. Mr. Ryks asked Mr. Saeed, to contact SMAAC and answer our questions. He did call me, and he said he would determine if our suggestion that CARES funds be used for a COVID-19 health outcome severity study near MSP. I sent Saeed and OFA Chair some information about similar neighborhoods in South Minneapolis one being overflown for decades and the other only since route changes in 2011.
I was told in October that CFO Saeed was not going report his finding to SMAAC o the Committee. And MAC PR manager Pat Hogan emailed MAC Chair King and OFA Chair Monaco and I later. Hogan’s message said that I had misled a reporter with incorrect information about the routes etc —again. I had an exchange with Hogan and the “incorrect” information was that departures using R30R were turned north over Standish-Ericcson were started in 2011 and the turns reduced the average attained height and ground speed.
I pointed out that the MAC had published that information in the revised 2010 LTCP, at a NOC PDE Open House, and in documents approved by the PDE Committee and the Commission.
Mr. Hogan then wrote that “the MAC … disagrees with you,” I told Chair King that physics and flight mechanics say that “unless more thrust is used, a turning and ascending operation would be much slower and risk a stall., so usually the climb rate would be reduced to compensate.” In short Hogan’s view is factually incorrect, not mine. So be careful reding MAC posts, pubs and press releases…
Jim Spensley commented on Annual Meeting -- Agenda 2020-12-01 12:35:23 -06002020 President’s Report
The mismanaged pandemic, the divisive election, and peaceful protests interrupted by fearful violence after George Floyd’s death overshadowed most every SMAAC effort last year. There were fewer visits to our website; traditional Forums and Fund-raisers were postponed or canceled, and our plans to unite with climate-change activists in caucuses and campaigns were minimized.
In 2019, SMAAC joined cities and groups around major hub airports working with the new House Transportation Committee Democratic majority to revive the 2015 official EPA/FAA Finding that commercial aviation endangered public health and welfare by releasing GHG; more (CO2 equivalent) each year 2006 to 2014. Some studies to update the health risks near busy airports like MSP were funded in the 2019-2020 FAA reauthorization. The studies would quantify public health risks near airports before the pandemic and illuminate provisions being debated in health services and slowing climate-change policy bills.
There is a need, the current Board believes, for more Directors, Members, Volunteers, and Donors in 2021, because of significant changes in commercial aviation in the Twin City Metro, Minnesota, all over the nation and around the world. COVID-19 dropped MSP air travel more than after 9/11 (2001) and the recession (2008-09).
Governor Walz issued an Executive Order in 2019 directing all State Departments and Agencies to limit GHG releases. In January, SMAAC Board Members and State Legislators asked the Governor to meet with us to discuss the Executive Order and his MAC appointments in a SMAAC Forum. The meeting is still pending: Governor Walz is, reasonably, dealing with the pandemic. The Metropolitan Airports Commission has made sustainable energy changes on-site at MSP, which we support, but denies responsibility for airline operations that increase fuel consumption and GHG emissions.
Despite peak-hour air traffic uncertainties, unknown corona-virus vaccination schedules and foot-dragging over more government financial relief —factors hard to locate in MAC planning —airlines using MSP in 2019 are being offered fee reductions to restore service. That likely would mean PBN routes and higher runway rates leading to more GHG and noise per flight. –and in turn more unacknowledged public health and safety risks, just as in 2004 (after 9/11) and the recession (2008).
MAC Chair Rick King correctly argues that whether air travel recovers and grows slowly or rapidly, MSP Airport competes with other airports for scheduled flights. The airfield, terminal, parking and other facilities and buildings represent a public investment, and the enterprise must plan for balanced budgets. We question how much expanding services for connecting passengers has benefitted the Twin Cities’ and Minnesota economic growth compared to the facilities planned in 1998 and completed in 2003 when Runway 17-35 was certified and 160 operations per hour in NW flow was assumed safe – and air pollution was not yet considered a public health or global warming risk.
James. R. Spensley, President
Jim Spensley commented on An effective SMAAC leader would be 2020-11-30 06:54:14 -06002021 Nomination for SMAAC Board of Directors
To the ANNUAL MEETING of the South Metro Airport Action Council
I nominate: Seeber, Mike
Who is registered as a Group Member at www.SMAACmn.org.
Jim Spensley, 2021 SMAAC Member
Mike is the organizer of a group around Lake Elmo Airport dealing with pollution and noise at the Lake Elmo Reliever Airport (in the MN 4th Congressional District.). He is aware that the MSP Airport hourly capacity safety reduction was a reason behind increased overflights and other
issues following the extension of a runway at the Lake Elmo airport.
Jim Spensley published Fears About Plans for Commercial Aviation in News Blog 2020-05-05 14:42:54 -0500
The Special Metro Airports Analysis Center is starting to track how the $billions appropriated to “tide-over” commercial aviation is being used. A Minneapolis-St. Paul Business Journal report steered us to Seth Kaplan, a well-known journalist and airline-industry expert, already known at the Center for his remark: “It’s not that an airline, after it merges… has to pick a hub to close.” The Center is trying to extend investigations of the airline routes, created during “recovery” after both 9/11 and after the recession of 2008, as increasing greenhouse gas volumes emitted (global warming, air pollution), and the cost of air travel.
Will a recovery from the economic hardships imposed to control the COVID-19 pandemic
be fair (democratic and equitable)?
We fear it will not, given the history
and the importance of international (air) travel to both
controlling human epidemics and lubricating global economic growth.
In 2010, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned airports that many epidemiological studies correlated overflights and increased health and mortality risks within ten miles of busy airfields. Increased incidences of pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases were found,
Correlating changes at urban airports, higher pollution doses from jet operations to health risks had seemed easy enough in 2014. WHO reported that the correlation was stronger applied to persons who had lived near or worked at a busy airport. Hearings were held in the House of Representatives and bills were passed and funds appropriated to study the topic. EPA/FAA Finding was issued in 2015, connecting commercial aviation to excessive releases of greenhouse gases. By law, the Agencies prepared to promulgate Rules.
We asked for health-outcomes studies, unsuccessfully, at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, as part of the 2010-2025 Metropolitan Transportation Policy Plan. University of Southern California scientists compared the density of sub-micron particulates in lower-income neighborhoods east of Los Angeles International Airport and found an abundance of particles ear-marked chemically as produced in jet engines. That study was repeated in Seattle just last year.
The responsibility for overflight pollution rules (EAW/EIS work) was muddled by de-regulation lobbies. There were a multitude of deaf ears in city halls, airport sponsor’s hearing rooms, and State capitols. The EPA/FAA Finding was nullified in 2017 by the Trump Administration.
Last year we updated and released a White Paper and, with citizen groups in other aviation-impacted cities, hoped to extend National Airspace System (NAS) analyses with more concern for health and environment impacts.
In the COVID-19 crisis, the large airlines, some airliner manufactures and other aviation interests reacted in the same ways they had reacted to climate change in 2017, to financial audits in 2009 and to security in 2002: air operations are not solely to blame and must not be regulated. Yet we know COVID-19 was harsher for persons with lung and heart disease.
The FAA reacted slowly after 9/11 and the Next Gen developments, funded in 2007, got in the way. FAA, airports, and airlines acted badly after the 2008 financial crisis. The Congress, too: bills were introduced to increase funding of Next Gen and privatize air traffic controller jobs. Bills were passed to enable airline mergers and reduce inspections; airline mergers were allowed that more or less passed $millions from air travelers to airline executives.
Federal statistics (USDOT) show that jet fuel burned by commercial flight operations in 2011 was 20 to 25% greater than in 2005 --when millions more travelers flew. The difference was noted at hub airport as routes were changed for safety reasons. Four findings were documented:
- U.S. passengers-boarded in 2010 were less, but 2010 fuel consumption was greater (each compared to 2005). The average trip was apparently quite a bit longer, because the average aircraft in 2010 had fewer seats and a lot more cargo weight was carried in passenger flights in 2005.
- In 2011, a majority of passengers boarded at fewer airports than in 2005; shown by sorting airports by departing passengers, highest to lowest, and a running total.
- There were significant differences in airport rank, sorted by runway operations per day.
- At the busiest airports, flight operations per day were higher, and more concentrated at peak hours, in 2011 than in 2005.
We conclude that city-hub-city passengers traveled fewer miles each in 2005.
There were fewer seats available per departure in 2011, and
airlines prospered by higher load-factors and much higher average fares.
Health and safety risks increased as a result at MSP and similar hub airports.
We thought this had to be addressed by Federal policy. The DOT and FAA operational statistics had become less available and epidemiological research more prevalent.
In 2014, the MAC and the Met C were to update the Metropolitan Transportation Policy Plan for 2015 to 2035. The MSP CIP plan for 2010 to 2017 was to be approved. Facilities needed were postponed: said to be because the peak runway use rates were reduced (CRO safety) and amendments to the Consent Decree on Noise Mitigation.
SMAAC and similar groups around the country connected with EPA and FAA in 2013 (soon after President Obama recommended attention to the relationship of high-rate airport flight operations to air pollution, the 2010 WHO Warning. The result was the Official Finding in 2015 that, by law, resulted in drafting Rules for approach and departure routes and rates in GFY 2016 that did not happen.
In 2002 and 2008, the airline business had dropped like a stone,
but recovered financially after bailouts, with higher profits,
fewer airlines, less service, less safety, and less oversight.
Also, more pollution including GHG and particulates (carbon footprints).
Opinion by Jim Spensley, Co-Founder, Special Metro Airports Analysis Center
© Copyright 2020
SMAAC, Minneapolis, MN
@smaac_jim tweeted link to LTCP Survey Response: Caucus Sample Resolution. 2019-11-03 09:43:27 -0600LTCP Survey Response: Caucus Sample Resolution https://www.smaacmn.org/jimspensleyyahoocom/ltcp_survey_response_caucus_sample_resolution?recruiter_id=1128
Attention Members: The MSP LTCP Update schedule --late by several years -- parallel the 2020 Election schedule. So, let's take an endorsement/platform stand! You can use the LINK below to access an editable Resolution to modify and share with the campaigns you support and the caucuses and conventions you attend.
Jim Spensley commented on MSP CRO Update 2019-10-18 16:40:18 -0500Several elected municipal officials or staff alternates are seated (a good term for what they do, sit) on the MSP LTCP Stakeholder’s Advisory Panel. Safety risks, PBN/RNAV routes, almost daily changes in forecasts, rules, equipment and technology are blithely presented over two decades of assumptions not including any responsibility for dealing openly about health, cost, or pollution.
WILL THE MAYOR’S APPOINTEES CONTINUE TO BE SILENT DURING THE LONG PROCESS AND ACCEPT THE STAFF/AIRLINE RECOMMENDATIONS? DOTHE CITY MEMBERS OF THE PANEL HAVE TECHNICAL AND LEGAL ADVICE OR THE WILL TO PREPARE MINORITY REPORTS?
The FAA chose to ignore the impact of overflight pollution according to internal USDOT/IG documents originated by FAA. The troubled Next Gen air traffic control program elevated "industry (airline) expectations" over public health and safety.
CAUTION: While we believe that the premise is correct --FAA usually designs PBN/RNAV route procedures only to increase hourly use of runways and other airport facilities --the IG study was of Metroplex implementations, multiple airports in urban areas.
When Next Gen could not resolve air traffic congestion in "more complex" airport and large metropolises without increasing air pollution and safety risks, they doubled down on "efficiency policy." During the last years of the George W. Bush administration, with the Next Gen program under development --and nothing else funded --FAA anticipated an expansion of routes, along the East Coast especially, and an "airline demand" for greater runway availability at many airports. Outside of the R&D departments, air traffic control management planned to "optimize runway use at minimum separations."
This is not news at MSP. FAA tried PBN routes at MSP soon after the September 2010 near-mid-air-collision, and the MAC maintained the illusion that environmental reviews and noise mitigation would be continued. FAA publicity featured "optimized efficient use of airport facilities and airspace," and airlines characterized noise complainers as being against the efficient and optimized flight routes needed for economic growth.
"Politicians (cynically or stupidly?) adopted the above views and did not question the MAC seriously when investigations of public health and safety or environmental impacts (GHG for example) were denied." Jim Spensley, SMAAC President
FAA ADMITS PUBLIC HEALTH AND SAFETY WERE NOT CONSIDERED IN IMPLEMENTING OVERFLIGHT ROUTES NEAR AIRPORTS: "......THE FOCUS WAS UPON OPTIMIZING ROUTES AND AIRSPACE DESIGN" RUNWAY-USE EFFICIENCY WAS "THE ONLY CONSIDERATION."
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL FINDINGS ON THE FAA'S METROPLEX AND NEXTGEN IMPLEMENTATIONS OF GPS-PLANNED AND FLOWN ROUTES (PBN/RNAV ROUTES).
In a bombshell and likely accidental admission, the FAA revealed the truth about how the MetroPlex and NextGen flight paths were designed
without noise, ground safety and public impact issues being considered. The FAA was responding in writing to an audit conducted
by the Transportation Departments Inspector General. The audit report stated that community noise issues were problems that were causing
delays with the FAA's implementation of the MetroPlex program across the Country. The FAA's response to the audits findings stated that
after noise issues became problematic, it later changed it's processes to include those concerns in future design procedures. But in doing
so, it admitted that the original design processes (which were used for the Sky Harbor NextGen flight paths) only considered optimization
of paths to benefit the industry. Here is the text of the FAA response regarding noise concerns from page 37 of the audit report:
"In order to address extensive community concerns about new noise exposure, procedures are designed and implemented that do not maximize efficiency benefits, but do result in less noise exposure. When the Metroplex program began in 2010, the focus was upon optimizing routes and airspace design. When community concerns were included in the design equation, optimization was no longer the only consideration. It is an extraordinarily complex balancing act to provide both efficiency benefits to industry and to minimize new noise exposure in
communities. These are usually competing priorities."
The FAA also went on to admit that the programs only intent was to make use of all available airspace which created new noise impacts
over areas that previously had not experienced flight path intrusions:
"The intent of the Metroplex program was to make efficient use of all available airspace, which created new noise impacts. In many
communities, some neighborhoods experience less noise, and some more-relieved communities generally have not recognized the beneficial
noise reductions, while impacted communities strongly oppose the new or increased exposure."
The title of the audit report, issued on August 27th is "FAA Has Made Progress in Implementing Its Metroplex Program, But Benefits for
Airspace Users Have Fallen Short of Expectations". The report goes on to say the the FAA is behind schedule in implementing the programs and
that benefits as promised are questionable. Other statements from the report include:
"Delays have occurred largely due to increased community concerns about aircraft noise."
"Since 2014, further delays have occurred as FAA has implemented new PBN (Performance Based Navigation) procedures at more sites, largely
due to increased community concerns. For example, in fiscal year 2018, FAA cancelled the Phoenix Metroplex project due to litigation related to a previous PBN project."
Jim Spensley commented on LTCP Survey Results 2019-11-01 15:08:02 -0500The Survey responses suggesting a social media campaign and platform resolutions at the February 2020 Precinct Caucuses make sense together. A Sample resolution has been drafted. We’re going to post it as a text file in several places for downloading (different platforms and different sponsors to keep track of the forwards, re-tweets, and shares).
Or you can post here and share that!
Stand by. Soon there will be a link to the draft
The Board is contacting several nice people who suggested using social media to start the ball rolling. Some will write their own resolution, we hope, candidates included if they want —the Sample isn’t very catchy.
Shortly – after we update the list —we will upload the Draft Resoultion file to Mail Chimp and circulate the link in an all-contacts email —and here.
Jim Spensley commented on About 2019-09-28 17:54:32 -0500Many thnnks to the respondents. We published a new page on the CRO situation. We hope cities and agencies appointed to the LTCP “Stakeholder’s Advisory Panel” are relentless about safety and climate change costs being considered; the airline appointees will be relentless about excluding environmental impacts (increased GHG emissions from closely-scheduled operations) and slow to commit to using new (different) aircraft and upgraded avionics for safety.
0The Metropolitan Airports Commission (MAC) set up a Stakeholder Engagement Department and a Stakeholder's Advisory Panel on the MSP Long-Term Comprehensive Plan (LTCP). The Panel is dominated by airlines and others doing business with the MAC, a few city members --seasoned for servile cooperation by noise oversight committee routine --and a handful of government agencies and NGOs. No public or neighborhood panelists.
Several public engagement events are planned to "inform citizens" about the LTCP progress and "listen to comments." If you've been there and done that, were your comments used in any way? The events focus on various parts of the LTCP, but are not yet scheduled.
A few years ago, to impress the Legislature and the Governor, an MSP Vision Statement and Strategic Plan for a well-appointed and expensive destination airport --serving passengers with daily Delta flights to places Minnesotans and most destination passengers visit less than once a month. The slickly presented Strategic Plan was apparently considered safe and healthy enough, although this wasn't mentioned.
It's clear the Converging Runway Operations (CRO) delay was used to submerge the MSP 2014 Long-Term Comprehensive Plan (LTCP) Update and at least the 2017-20 capital projects, floating long-term goals without revealing details to the public directly or to the Met Council and Legislature formally, for appropriate economic growth forecast (O&D passenger use of MSP), financial, or environmental review.
The CRO details now --stiffer safety-at-peak-hours restrictions --will:
- be more to Delta's competitive benefit;
- increase fares to pay airline fees;
- increase total noise;
- use PBN/RNAV route and limit vertical-approach technology to plan arrival rates;
- increase air pollution per flight with a greater GHG and overall pollution volume as passengers increase.
A MAC staff opinion is that the Minnesota Legislature intended that the MAC defer off-site public health and environmental impact statements to the FAA/EPA. The FAA doesn’t do EAWs at specific airports. Neither MPCA or MAC is responsible for EAW/EIS or public health studies of flight operations. It appears the Evironmental Quality Board has endowed MAC with EAW authority for capital projects and immunized them against appeals.
A second assumption is that the small site will remain safe enough even if average hourly use increases to the annuaized equivalent of 800,000 to 1 million operations per year and 60 million passengers. That being the case --without a serious accident --the costs will be 3 or 4 times higher than moving to a larger site in 2001 would have been and 2 or 3 times the cost of building a second airport. now. All of these 3 options are a risky capital investment as airline demand is fickle, not promised: airlines fail financially, real air travel demand is fare and service dependent, and the public may demand a lower public health and safety risk or more attention to GHG releases and global warming.
Aren't those assumptions worth consideration in developing the LTCP? We think so. Drafting a plan for 18 months to be considered for 18 minutes in its only pubic hearing seems less transparent and informative than it should be considering the projected cost over 20 years.
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